None of us won the $2 billion Powerball Lottery or we would have more expensive things to do with our lives than read about college football. Nevertheless, our upset alerts had our first true lottery week as then-No. 6 Alabama and Oklahoma hit the turf.
Those two wins netted us 7.43 units alone thanks to a massive +400 line that hit when Jayden Daniels found Mason Taylor for a 2-point conversion in the corner of the end zone. Elsewhere, Tennessee let us down, but Georgia Southern and Army gave their opponents hell and a chance to pick up more value.
Heading into the home stretch, games with national implications take center stage. One of the top four teams is a touchdown dog on the road, while another could face a lookahead spot. Plus, is there more meat left on that Bama bone? We’ll find out. Here are five games that jump out to us in Week 11 for money line upsets.
“Upset” is defined by odds, not rankings. All odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook. Lines may shift after publication.
No. 9 Alabama at No. 11 Ole Miss
When: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET | Where: Vaught-Hemingway Stadium — Oxford, Mississippi
Featured Game | Ole Miss Rebels vs. Alabama Crimson Tide
Alabama is in uncharted waters after losing a second game before the Iron Bowl for the first time since 2007, Nick Saban’s first season on campus. The bottom seems ready to fall out on the Crimson Tide’s season after a pair of excruciating defeats. Now, enter Lane Kiffin.
Analytically, Alabama is off the charts — with one exception. The Tide rank No. 63 in rushing success rate allowed. Ole Miss, coincidentally, ranks No. 14 in rushing success rate and boasts the most productive rushing offense outside of the academies. If Alabama is even a little bit off its game after the emotional LSU loss, Ole Miss might run all over them in The Grove. Pick: Ole Miss (+335)
When: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET | Where: Protective Stadium — Birmingham, Alabama
Featured Game | UAB Blazers vs. North Texas Mean Green
Frankly, North Texas deserves a little more respect than nearly 2-to-1 value against an inconsistent team like UAB. The Mean Green are 5-1 in conference play with the only loss coming in a heartbreaker against Conference USA favorite UTSA. Massive wins over Western Kentucky and FAU are only aging better.
UAB gave UTSA a tough overtime matchup last week, but the Blazers are just 2-4 in C-USA play with three straight losses. The only wins have come against Middle Tennessee and a hapless Charlotte squad that has since fired its coach. Take North Texas to keep piling on wins. Pick: North Texas (+192)
When: Saturday, 7 p.m. ET | Where: Autzen Stadium — Eugene, Oregon
Featured Game | Oregon Ducks vs. Washington Huskies
Oregon is playing unbelievable football on both sides of the ball thanks to a Heisman-caliber season from quarterback Bo Nix. However, the Ducks meet their offensive match on Saturday as the nation’s leading passer comes to Eugene. Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr. boasts more than 3,200 yards passing to his name with 23 touchdowns.
Outside of a head-scratching loss against Arizona State, the Huskies have shown signs of offensive dominance. The Ducks allowed 41 points to Washington State and 30 to UCLA, so the opportunity is there. If Nix and Penix get into a shootout, anyone could emerge victorious. Certainly, it’s worth this kind of money line value. Pick: Washington (+400)
No. 4 TCU at No. 18 Texas
When: Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET | Where: Darrell K. Royal Memorial Stadium — Austin, Texas
Featured Game | Texas Longhorns vs. TCU Horned Frogs
TCU’s undefeated season faces one of its toughest tests yet as the Horned Frogs travel to Austin to play Texas. However, the Longhorns are touchdown favorites after edging out Kansas State a week ago. TCU is trying to maintain its spot in the top four of the CFP Rankings after entering for the first time since 2014.
But perhaps the biggest reason for optimism at TCU comes in the second half. The Horned Frogs are one of the best second-half teams in all of college football and have outscored their seven Power Five opponents by nearly 12 points per game in the second half. Texas, conversely, has scored one second-half touchdown over the past three games and needed late turnovers to prevent game-winning scores for Iowa State and Kansas State. Can TCU keep that trend alive? Pick: TCU (+228)
When: Saturday, 11 p.m. ET | Where: Ching Complex — Honolulu, Hawaii
Featured Game | Hawaii Rainbow Warriors vs. Utah State Aggies
Three matchups with New Year’s Six implications feels a little off brand, so we’ll close things out with a real sickos special. Hawaii started the Timmy Chang era in the absolute gutter, but – blowout against Fresno State aside – has been highly competitive against the lower tier of the Mountain West over the past six games.
Utah State has been pulling things together, but remains a flawed team. Hawaii isn’t efficient offensively, but the Rainbow Warriors rank No. 11 in rushing success rate. Utah State is excellent against the pass, but is No. 103 in rushing success rate on defense. If Hawaii can hang onto the ball and keep the clock moving, there’s a recipe for an upset on the islands. Hope you’ll be awake to see it. Pick: Hawaii (+328)
Which college football picks can you make with confidence in Week 11, and which top-25 teams will go down hard? Visit SportsLine to see which teams will win and cover the spread — all from a proven computer model that has returned almost $3,000 in profit over the past six-plus seasons — and find out.