Hawaii holiday travel is expected to be soft

The Transportation Security Administration estimates a record holiday travel season nationwide based on previous records set this year across airport security checkpoints.

TSA expects to screen 30 million
passengers across the nation during
the 12-day Thanksgiving travel season, which begins Friday and runs through Nov. 28.

TSA Administrator David Pekoske said in a statement Monday, “We expect this holiday season to be our busiest ever. In 2023, we have already seen seven of the top 10 busiest travel days in TSA’s history.”

“We are ready for the anticipated volumes and are working closely with our airline and airport partners to make sure we are prepared for this busy holiday travel season,” Pekoske said. “We will also do our best to maintain wait time standards of under 10 minutes for TSA PreCheck lanes and under 30 minutes for standard screening lanes. I am grateful for our dedicated employees who continue to remain vigilant and focused on the mission during this holiday travel season and beyond.”

Hawaii travel sellers say tourism across the Hawaiian Islands, which was softening even before the devastating Aug. 8 Maui wildfires, which killed nearly 100 people, is not likely to set any holiday records.

Still, travelers should be aware that even if this year’s holiday travel period for Hawaii isn’t forecast to be as strong from a tourism standpoint, the combination of improving visitor demand as well as a boost in local travel might make state airports feel busier than they have been in recent times. Also, those traveling into and out of Hawaii should note that other airports on their itineraries may be dealing with record passenger volumes.

Right after the wildfires, tourism to all of Maui was shut down. Tourism to areas outside of West Maui
reopened shortly after,
but the county did not allow West Maui to begin a phased-in return of non­essential travelers until
Oct. 8. On Nov. 1, the county finally reopened tourism to all of West Maui.

These regulations, combined with strong social media messaging, especially from celebrities, that Maui should stay closed to give wildfire survivors time to grieve and heal, resulted in immediate and staggering economic losses. Visitors
to Maui right after the fire dropped by 75%, representing an estimated $13 million loss of visitor spending per day, according to statistics from the state Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism.

DBEDT has since indicated that visitors are gradually returning, but arrivals to the island are not expected to recover to pre-fire forecast levels until 2028.

The latest tourism data from DBEDT for September showed that some 651,286 visitors came to the Hawaiian Islands, down 7.4% from September 2022. Arrivals to Maui plummeted 57% to 94,221 visitors in September, according to the DBEDT data.

Anecdotal information from the state’s visitor industry suggests tourism has begun improving, albeit slowly.

Jerry Gibson, president of the Hawaii Hotel Alliance, said, “Thanksgiving is a little slower than normal. We are off a few points from last
year. But we are seeing a last-
minute pickup for the end of December — more for Oahu, Big Island and Kauai. It’s not astronomical, but it’s a pickup and we are grateful for that.”

Gibson said room rates for the festive season are generally higher than the rest of the year. However, he said those booking holiday season trips to Hawaii this year are likely to see more value than they have over the past couple of years due to the slower volume.

He said Maui hotels have been hard-hit by the fires but have started to see higher numbers on the South side, where occupancy is now about 70%, and is expected to increase for the holidays. He said Kaanapali is running an occupancy of about 68% to 69%, mostly from displaced residents, employees and
disaster workers.

“It’s not a natural year by any means in either West or South Maui. There is some glimmers of good news, but it’s certainly not robust,” Gibson said.

Keith Vieira, principal of KV &Associates, Hospitality Consulting, said the shifting to Oahu of this year’s Maui Invitational, an early season college basketball tournament that takes place Nov. 20-22, could throw off Thanksgiving numbers.

“That event packed Maui with teams and boosters, and the people that came usually stayed through Thanksgiving,” Vieira said.
“It may bring a boost to Oahu, but I think some people that are used to attending in Maui may have canceled.”

However, there is enough travel demand for Hawaiian Airlines to add holiday flights. Alex Da Silva, Hawaiian Airlines spokesperson, said the carrier will operate an additional 20 neighbor island round trips between Nov. 22 and 26 “to provide our guests more options and meet travel demand during the Thanksgiving period.”

Da Silva said Hawaiian also is increasing its Honolulu-
Las Vegas service from four times weekly to daily, from Nov. 17 to Jan. 12, except on Dec. 31.

He said Hawaiian will add 32 more neighbor island round trips between Dec. 21 and 29. The carrier also is adding a third weekly round-trip flight between Honolulu and Pago Pago on Dec. 13 and Jan. 3.

Hawaii travelers should take note of the busiest travel days, as passenger volumes at the airport may be higher than what they have seen in recent months. TSA says that historically, the three busiest travel
days are the Tuesday and Wednesday before Thanksgiving and the Sunday afterward. TSA expects to screen as many as 2.6 million passengers on Tuesday, Nov. 21 and 2.7 million passengers on Wednesday, Nov. 22.

The Sunday after Thanksgiving, Nov. 26, is projected by TSA to be the busiest travel day with more than 2.9 million passengers. Passenger volumes on that day are expected to exceed the 2.9 million passenger screening record set June 30, during the summer rush.

TSA’s holiday travel forecast is based in part on
June 30 as well as multiple days in 2023 that exceeded 2.8 million passengers.

TSA also noted that there are now a record 17.6 million passengers enrolled
in TSA PreCheck, a gain of 3.9 million TSA PreCheck members from the same time in 2022.

Given the expected increase in passenger volumes at airports nationwide, TSA recommends that travelers take steps to ensure that they are prepared before arriving at the airport. TSA offers the following tips:

>> Pack smart; start with empty bags to cut down on the chance of bringing a prohibited item through the checkpoint.

>> Before packing holiday foods, check for prohibited items by using the “What Can I Bring?” page on TSA.gov, or just ask @AskTSA.

>> Bring an acceptable ID and have it out in the screening lane.

>> Arrive at least two hours prior to your scheduled flight, and watch for
notifications from the airlines to get there earlier.

>> Passengers traveling with a firearm may not put them in carry-ons. They must be packed in a hard-sided, locked case in a checked bag and declared
at the airline ticket counter when checking in.

>> Be aware of new checkpoint screening technology. Screening protocols vary from airport to airport, depending on available technology and the current threat environment. In airport lines with Computed Tomography (CT) scanners, travelers do not need to remove their 3-1-1 liquids or laptops. With CT units, all travelers must place every carry-on item,
including bags, into a bin for screening.

>> Remain aware and report suspicious activities.

>> Enjoy faster screening by enrolling in TSA PreCheck, which now has provisions to allow children to join their parents in TSA PreCheck screening lanes. For more information about becoming a member of the
TSA PreCheck program,
visit TSA.gov/precheck.

>> Travelers or families of passengers who need assistance are encouraged to call the TSA Cares helpline toll-free at 855-787-2227 at least 72 hours prior to travel.

>> Have a question for TSA? Text a question to #275-872 (“AskTSA”) or send a direct message through
@AskTSA on X (formerly known as Twitter) or Facebook Messenger. Call the TSA Contact Center at
866-289-9673.